Ghana’s current account balance is projected to remain in surplus through 2025, but pressures from rising debt servicing and income outflows will push it into deficit starting in 2026, according to economic forecasts.
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Ghana’s current account will remain in surplus at 0.6% of GDP in 2025, thanks to strong export earnings from gold and crude oil, as well as steady remittance inflows. Even as cocoa exports struggle due to lower output, high global prices for other key commodities will help maintain this positive balance.
However, the story changes in 2026. The EIU forecasts the current account will tip into a deficit of 0.4% of GDP, which is expected to widen further by 2029. The main culprits? Increasing profit repatriation by oil and mining companies as new projects come online and the resumption of deferred debt repayments. Rising service imports, particularly for technical expertise in the mining and oil sectors, will also add to the strain.
While Ghana’s trade surplus is expected to grow during this period, it won’t be enough to offset these pressures. The country will turn to short-term borrowing and foreign direct investments (FDI), particularly in mining, services, and manufacturing, to finance the deficit.
The EIU notes that these investments will not only bring in much-needed funds but also boost export competitiveness. Additionally, the ongoing IMF Extended Credit Facility will provide temporary relief until the end of 2026.
While the country’s rich natural resources remain a backbone for its economy, managing debt payments and income outflows will require careful planning and execution. As the EIU highlights, balancing these factors will be key to sustaining financial stability in the years to come.
Adding to this complex economic outlook, Ghana’s real GDP growth is projected to accelerate in the coming years. From an estimated 4.9% in 2024, growth is expected to rise to 5.1% in 2025 and continue climbing to 6.4% by 2029.
This growth will be driven by recovering domestic demand, boosted by easing inflation and lower borrowing costs. Key sectors like gold mining and oil production are expected to play a critical role in this expansion, with projects like the Bibiani and Ahafo North mines set to increase output significantly.
Source: TheHighStreetJournal
